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It’s Because We Stepped on a Bone Pile…

January 7, 2010

In my trawling of the Turbine forums of late, I spent some time in the Instances and Raids forums. I was mostly there to look up combinations of classes that have worked in Sword-Halls hard-mode to see if there were any surprises (I think our most surprising has been capt-capt-warden, surprising due to lack of dps, not lack of anything else – both capts were healing-specced). So I went, and I looked, and of course I got drawn in to reading some other threads.

Now, I don’t tend to forum-browse all that much. I visit the Capt forums for debates on sword/shield vs halberd/greatsword and other Capt-specific areas of interest. I also don’t like to know too much about an instance or raid before I go to it and have some experience in it, so I don’t visit that specific forum area very often. When I do, I check out all the threads of interest.

So I skipped the threads about Barad Guldur – have time to go to the raid with my kin when we get started. Then I might look up specific ways others approach it, or what gear drops or what a capt role should be in the fight. As we’re all obsessed with getting some Symbols of Celebrimbor (you need them to craft 2nd Age items), I was naturally drawn to a thread about its chances to drop.

I’ve been giggling on-and-off since, because it reminded me of our highly-superstitious nature. We can be told a drop chance is 10%, 5%, 1%, 75% and we’ll still think that something about our behaviour can affect a programmed game. As humans, we seem to find random chance hard to deal with. And some of the theories are really great – if you do the fight in a certain amount of time, it increases the chances – if you don’t set off any bone piles, it increases the chances – etc.

It’s actually added to my enjoyment of Sammath Gul because now, in my warped mind, I make up fake rituals to tell people would increase their chance of a Symbol drop. I’m evil. I accept that. We all know the truth is that it’s a percentage, and therefore quite random! We’ve definitely seen it drop more than some in that thread though and less than others. Nature of the beast. I guess the only one I find somewhat believable is that easy-mode has a higher chance of it dropping, but I don’t think that IS the case, unless proven otherwise by someone willing to do the maths and to do the run a statistically significant number of times with the same 6-person group in both Challenge and non-Challenge mode.

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4 comments

  1. The thing with the hard mode is that it is actually almost easier than the easy mode. The first time we brought Gorothul down we did the hard mode unintentionally. The ghosts are neglible if you interrupt him a lot.


    • Well, this isn’t really about hardmode vs easymode! I don’t think we’ve done easymode once yet, but that’s why I’m saying someone would have to REALLY want to test the theory to run the instance a statistically significant number of times both ways. Superstition is more fun.


      • Wotcha Arbitrary,

        Yes, the superstition is more fun. Is there a “hop” emote? I can’t remember…

        I think it’s also because percentage chances can be more perfidious than people think, especially when the system “rolls” to see if an item drops.

        A 15% drop chance does not necessarily mean you’ll get 15 drops out of 100 chances.

        Cheers,
        Hawley.


  2. [...] Arbitrary is having fun persuading people that if they run instances backwards without their pants on, there’s a better [...]



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